31°Computing the area: football teams in thick of playoff chase
10:29 PM
Sep 17
2008
Sep 17
2008
With the midway point of the football season fast upon us, it's time to take a quick look at the OHSAA computer point rankings that determine the top eight seeds from each region that qualify for each Division's 32-team playoff field. While some things have already started to take shape for some, there are still plenty of area teams that could go either way to hopefully make for an exciting final five or six weeks of the regular season.
So far, here is what we know...
In great shape:
- St. Paul (No. 2 in Division VI, Region 21)
- Bellevue (No. 3 in Division III, Region 10)
- Clyde (No. 4 in Division III, Region 10)
- Huron (No. 5 in Division IV, Region 14)
Thoughts- At this point, its this writer's opinion that St. Paul and Bellevue are virtual locks for the playoffs barring any major upsets while Clyde would almost certain become a lock with a win vs. Huron in eight days...even with a loss to Huron, the Fliers are still probably on solid ground to qualify, but a win can push them into a possible first-round home game, and perhaps a first-ever in-season rematch with Bellevue?...Huron is currently in good standing at No. 5, but a loss to either Edison or Clyde in the next two weeks could be costly given the secondary points they are currently receiving (or not receiving) from its other opponents presently and in the future...a win over Edison tomorrow night will certainly give them solid points, but a victory over the Fliers will also have the Tigers in first round home game contention.
On the cusp:
- Western Reserve (No. 9 in Division V, Region 18)
- South Central (No. 10 in Division V, Region 18)
- Perkins (No. 10 in Division III, Region 10)
Western Reserve has been no secret to being 'on the cusp' over say the past five years, as they narrowly missed the playoffs in 2002 (10th), 2003 (13th) and 2005 (9th) and as we enter the midway point, the 'Riders have chances at solid points with South Central (3-1), Crestview (4-0), and St. Paul (4-0) on the schedule, but given the past bad luck for the team qualifying in this region, it may once again take wins over all three programs, which will certainly be a daunting task...South Central finds themselves in almost an identical situation as Western...the Riders and Trojans will play next week in what COULD be a matchup of 4-1 teams, and key points will be on the table there but for SC to have any shot at its first-ever playoff berth, wins over New London and Crestview are probably a must...At Perkins, the Pirates are on the outside looking in trying to make it three area teams in Region 10 and have games left against Edison (3-1), Clyde (3-1) and Huron (3-1), who I'll add they play consecutively in weeks 7, 8 and 9...given the strength of their region, victories over Edison and one of Clyde or Huron will hinge the Pirates postseason chances.
Lying in the weeds:
- Plymouth (No. 13 in Division VI, Region 23)
- Edison (No. 14 in Division IV, Region 14)
- New London (No. 17 in Division V, Region 18)
- Seneca East (No. 16 in Division VI, Region 21)
It's unfamiliar territory for the Plymouth to be anywhere near the mix of the playoff chase in the past decade, but a surprising win over Seneca East has given the team a boost in the rankings...the highest finish for the Big Red in the expanded playoff-era of 1999-present was a 14th place tie in 2004. But the bottom line is, it will take six wins for Plymouth to make the playoffs, meaning wins over the likes of Western Reserve tomorrow, as well as Crestview, South Central, New London, etc...Edison is in a very tough position in that it's three wins have featured opponents who are a combined 0-12...ouch. Again, given past trends in Region 14, the Chargers likely need to beat both Huron tomorrow and then Perkins two weeks later, although 8-2 with a loss to Huron may have them on the cusp needing help...New London will need to win out to have a realistic shot in the traditionally deep Region 18, but 7-3 with losses to let's say St. Paul and Crestview will probably leave them in the 10-15th range...NL is another program getting little help from it's non-conference slate...Meanwhile at Seneca East, I believe a record as low as 6-4 could get the Tigers in the playoffs in region 21 IF it's the "right" opponents they beat. Sitting in 16th, a win over Mohawk tomorrow may bump them up a spot or two, but then look at the following points out there: Hopewell-Loudon (4-0), St. Wendelin (3-1), Carey (4-0) and Fremont St. Joseph (3-1)...for arguments sake, we'll say SE loses to H-L and Carey, but beats the other three teams mentioned above...if those teams continue to perform like they have, those secondary points will have the Tigers in the mix for a bottom seed in the region, but none of that will matter without a win vs. Mohawk tomorrow.
So far, here is what we know...
In great shape:
- St. Paul (No. 2 in Division VI, Region 21)
- Bellevue (No. 3 in Division III, Region 10)
- Clyde (No. 4 in Division III, Region 10)
- Huron (No. 5 in Division IV, Region 14)
Thoughts- At this point, its this writer's opinion that St. Paul and Bellevue are virtual locks for the playoffs barring any major upsets while Clyde would almost certain become a lock with a win vs. Huron in eight days...even with a loss to Huron, the Fliers are still probably on solid ground to qualify, but a win can push them into a possible first-round home game, and perhaps a first-ever in-season rematch with Bellevue?...Huron is currently in good standing at No. 5, but a loss to either Edison or Clyde in the next two weeks could be costly given the secondary points they are currently receiving (or not receiving) from its other opponents presently and in the future...a win over Edison tomorrow night will certainly give them solid points, but a victory over the Fliers will also have the Tigers in first round home game contention.
On the cusp:
- Western Reserve (No. 9 in Division V, Region 18)
- South Central (No. 10 in Division V, Region 18)
- Perkins (No. 10 in Division III, Region 10)
Western Reserve has been no secret to being 'on the cusp' over say the past five years, as they narrowly missed the playoffs in 2002 (10th), 2003 (13th) and 2005 (9th) and as we enter the midway point, the 'Riders have chances at solid points with South Central (3-1), Crestview (4-0), and St. Paul (4-0) on the schedule, but given the past bad luck for the team qualifying in this region, it may once again take wins over all three programs, which will certainly be a daunting task...South Central finds themselves in almost an identical situation as Western...the Riders and Trojans will play next week in what COULD be a matchup of 4-1 teams, and key points will be on the table there but for SC to have any shot at its first-ever playoff berth, wins over New London and Crestview are probably a must...At Perkins, the Pirates are on the outside looking in trying to make it three area teams in Region 10 and have games left against Edison (3-1), Clyde (3-1) and Huron (3-1), who I'll add they play consecutively in weeks 7, 8 and 9...given the strength of their region, victories over Edison and one of Clyde or Huron will hinge the Pirates postseason chances.
Lying in the weeds:
- Plymouth (No. 13 in Division VI, Region 23)
- Edison (No. 14 in Division IV, Region 14)
- New London (No. 17 in Division V, Region 18)
- Seneca East (No. 16 in Division VI, Region 21)
It's unfamiliar territory for the Plymouth to be anywhere near the mix of the playoff chase in the past decade, but a surprising win over Seneca East has given the team a boost in the rankings...the highest finish for the Big Red in the expanded playoff-era of 1999-present was a 14th place tie in 2004. But the bottom line is, it will take six wins for Plymouth to make the playoffs, meaning wins over the likes of Western Reserve tomorrow, as well as Crestview, South Central, New London, etc...Edison is in a very tough position in that it's three wins have featured opponents who are a combined 0-12...ouch. Again, given past trends in Region 14, the Chargers likely need to beat both Huron tomorrow and then Perkins two weeks later, although 8-2 with a loss to Huron may have them on the cusp needing help...New London will need to win out to have a realistic shot in the traditionally deep Region 18, but 7-3 with losses to let's say St. Paul and Crestview will probably leave them in the 10-15th range...NL is another program getting little help from it's non-conference slate...Meanwhile at Seneca East, I believe a record as low as 6-4 could get the Tigers in the playoffs in region 21 IF it's the "right" opponents they beat. Sitting in 16th, a win over Mohawk tomorrow may bump them up a spot or two, but then look at the following points out there: Hopewell-Loudon (4-0), St. Wendelin (3-1), Carey (4-0) and Fremont St. Joseph (3-1)...for arguments sake, we'll say SE loses to H-L and Carey, but beats the other three teams mentioned above...if those teams continue to perform like they have, those secondary points will have the Tigers in the mix for a bottom seed in the region, but none of that will matter without a win vs. Mohawk tomorrow.
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