FOOTBALL: To punt or not?

It’s fourth-and-17 from your 10-yard line. It’s only logical to send out the punting unit, right?

Maybe not.

With another regular season gone, one key area of change in high school football may come in the punting game.

In Little Rock, Ark., the Pulaski Academy Bruins do not punt on fourth down. The team goes for it every time, no matter the distance.

And, for them, the strategy works. The Bruins won the state championship in Arkansas’ third-largest classification last season and did not punt. This year, they are 8-3 with one punt.

“There are two parts to that,” Sandusky coach Mike Franklin said. “First, you better hope you have a great defense, not a good one. It also says you have a ton of confidence in that defense. It could be a great motivational factor with your kids, if you can be successful with it.”

In 2006, Franklin attempted the no-punting strategy in Week 10 at Fremont Ross. Sandusky entered the game 2-7 overall and lost, 49-6.

“We felt we had nothing to lose,” Franklin said. “We went with that for a couple quarters, but we gave up on it after we got behind pretty far. But I think the concept as far as a motivational piece is fantastic.”

The strategy

According to coach Kevin Kelley’s theory at Pulaski Academy, a team that takes over the ball at its opponent’s 10-yard line or closer has a 92 percent chance of scoring a touchdown. A team that gains possession between its opponent’s 40-yard line and its 31 has a 77 percent chance of scoring a touchdown.

So, Kelley figures even if the Bruins fail to convert, he is increasing his opponent’s chance of scoring a touchdown by only 15 percent than if his team got off a decent punt. So why not go for it on fourth-and-10 from your own 6?

“I disagree with it,” St. Paul coach John Livengood said. “I can just think of many examples of teams we have played in the past that have tried that against us. Say for instance you get the ball on a deep kickoff at your 20-yard line.

“Your facing third-and-10 and you get sacked for a 7-yard loss. Now it’s fourth-and-17 … what do you think is wiser? To punt it to midfield or give them the ball at your 18? That’s about as simple as I can put it.”

The Bruins convert their fourth downs about 50 percent of the time.

A couple area coaches were intrigued by the idea when told the data behind Kelley’s decision.

“As much as we punted this past year, then trying to convert on fourth down might not be a bad idea,” St. Mary Central Catholic coach Jason Ziegler said. “I don’t know if I could do that, but if it won me a state title I wouldn’t punt at all, so maybe it’s something I need to look into in the offseason.”

Said Norwalk coach Chris MacFarland, “That’s something that if you instill it from Day 1, then yeah, I think it can work. It took that coach a while to breed that into his whole team’s philosophy that their defense will have no fear no matter where the other team starts.

“The better a defense gets, the more confidence it brings. I like the thought.”

Margaretta coach Rock Farlow didn’t sound willing to try the theory, but said you have to give Kelley credit.

“He’s obviously done some research about it and isn’t just going off the seat of his pants,” Farlow said. “You hear coaches talk about believing in their kids, which is all fine and good, but you can also believe in the punt team.

“I don’t know if I buy that one, but you have to respect the guy if he’s winning games and getting it done. He’s thought it through and made his peace with it.”

Risk versus reward

There is always the obvious question to “gambling” and going for it on fourth down: What if it doesn’t work?
At Norwalk, when a shot at a winning season was lost, MacFarland often kept his offense on the field on fourth down if it was past its own 40-yard line.

“We have a couple charts that we use about where percentages are with field position,” MacFarland said. “I think that I agree with this theory — if you have a pretty good defense. You have to be willing to know that your coaches and kids understand the challenges of it.”

Livengood seemed at least open to the idea of going for it on fourth down — to a point.

“I can understand the theory if you’re at midfield,” he said. “The risk-reward on that goes up a lot, so there I could understand it. But to just wholesale say that’s what we’re going to do, I won’t subscribe to that.

“Nor would I onside kick almost every time and give the chance of the other team getting the ball at midfield. That same coach does that, too.”

Farlow said committing to such a risk-reward game plan requires being consistent at all times.

“If they practice and do it that way time and time again, then fine,” Farlow said. “The biggest thing with something like this is, you have to have a plan and follow it.”

Second-guessing

The biggest football story this week has been New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick — arguably the most successful head coach in the modern NFL era — deciding against punting at Indianapolis from his own 28-yard line facing fourth-and-2 with 2:08 left in the game and his team up 34-28.

New England failed to convert, giving one of the best quarterbacks ever, Peyton Manning, a short field to work with. Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass with 13 seconds left to lead the Colts to a 35-34 victory and open Belichick to a ton of questions after the fact.

The Belichick decision invoked memories of a certain Division IV state championship game played at Massillon’s Paul Brown Tiger Stadium 10 years ago.

Farlow was the coach of the Pirates at the time, and his team trailed 14-10 to Ironton with less than one minute remaining. Faced with a fourth-and-1 at his team’s own 29 with 49 seconds left, Ironton coach Bob Lutz — who recently became Ohio’s all-time wins leader — chose to keep his offense on the field to try and run out the clock.

The rest is history, as the Pirates stuffed a running play to get the ball at the Ironton 29 and three plays later, with 19 seconds left, got a touchdown pass from Brent Adams to Burt Jarrett to win the game and title, 16-14.

“It’s hard to compare high school and pro because of the efficiency in which they do things,” Farlow said of Belichick’s decision compared to the Ironton game. “Look back at Ironton, we had blocked a punt in that game already and we had returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown in the playoffs, which I’m sure they saw on film.”

A decade later, Farlow admitted to hoping Lutz would punt.

“The average high school punter you figure can kick it 30-to-35 yards,” Farlow said. “Let’s say we have a modest return of 10 yards and we get it at our own 46.

“We were going to have to win it with a deep pass, regardless of where we were on the field — and we did. If you beat a team deep, you beat a team deep, you know?”

Farlow thinks the decision not to punt by Lutz was and is still overblown.

“To me, it wasn’t as crazy as they made it sound that day,” he said. “People were all over him, but I think he was concerned that on a punt in that situation, a lot of bad things can happen.

“To be quite honest, standing there at the time, I was hoping he’d punt because I didn’t figure there was any way we’d stop them on fourth and less than a yard. The true miracle play of that game is us stopping them. We pulled off one of the greatest plays I’ve ever seen when we stopped them.”